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States to watch
Nov. 3rd, 2008 01:05 am538 says these are the states to watch if the election is close. The notes show what other close states Obama needs to win to clinch the election if he wins the given state.
| close | state | also needed to win |
|---|---|---|
| 24:00 | Virginia | +PA or OH or (CO+NV) |
| 00:30 | Ohio | +PA or VA or CO |
| 01:00 | Pennsylvania | +VA or OH or CO or NV |
| 02:00 | Colorado | +PA or OH or (VA+NV) |
| 03:00 | Nevada | +PA or (VA+CO) |
As you can see, it could all be over by 00:30 (VA + OH; note that Obama's current polling lead in both these states is around 6%). Early indications of an Obama landslide will be if he wins any of these "champagne" states:
| close | state |
|---|---|
| 24:00 | Georgia |
| 24:00 | Indiana |
| 01:00 | Florida |
| 01:00 | Missouri |
| 01:30 | North Carolina |
In particular, break out the expensive champagne if he takes Georgia or Indiana, and at least break into a smile if either one is "too close to call".
I have a different list of states which would indicate a McCain landslide. The "cheap gin" states.
